MODERN TIMES

Art Hobson

ahobson@uark.edu

NWA Times 11 Nov 2006

 

Iraq:  ItÕs Past Time to Leave

 

              IÕm re-publishing here my column of May 15, 2004.  Unfortunately, it bears repeating.  I only hope that I wonÕt have to publish it again after another two-and-a-half years of disaster. 

 

              "The administration has dug a hole in Iraq.  It is time to stop digging deeper.  The war was a tragic, avoidable mistake."  I must, reluctantly and sadly, agree with these words from conservative foreign policy analyst Christopher Layne, writing last week in The American Conservative. 

              It was clear from the beginning that the war was a mistake.  First, our plate was already full.  Getting into a second war, in Iraq, has detracted from our necessary mission to help build democracy in Afghanistan.  Second, there was never any reason to believe that Saddam Hussein's weapons of mass destruction were an imminent threat to us, and it soon became obvious that they existed only in the minds of administration idealogues.  Third, there was never any reason to believe that Saddam was allied with al-Qaida, and in fact our invasion has only encouraged outside terrorists to take advantage of the quagmire we've created.  Fourth, it's hard to believe that America is interested in a truly democratic Iraq, because it would be virulently anti-Israel, probably anti-American, and could easily evolve into a Muslim theocracy.  Certainly Saddam was a murderous thug whom we are better off without, but the world has many murderous thugs and there are limits to what we can do, especially when we choose to act without major allied cooperation. 

              Nevertheless, once we invaded, I along with all Americans hoped for a quick military victory followed by massive and successful nation building.  Tragically, we have by now made so many mistakes that it is unlikely any such effort can succeed.  As the staunchly pro-military Rep. John Murtha (D-Pa.) said last week, "the war in Iraq is unwinnable if the U.S. military does not dramatically increase troop levels, provide more ground support and seek significant international involvement."  But Murtha's conditions for success are unlikely to be fulfilled. 

              Our mistakes have included predictions of throngs of Iraqis welcoming the U.S. occupation, Defense Secretary Rumsfeld's belief that Iraq could be stabilized without the long-term commitment of several hundred thousand troops, and predictions that our troops would be seen as a liberating force rather than a hostile army.  The military stand-offs in Fallujah and Najaf, a full year after President Bush's "mission accomplished" speech, further confirmed our lack of realism about the difficulties of transplanting democracy into a nation with such a jaded history.  Even before the revelations of human rights abuses at Abu Ghraib prison, Gallup polls showed that Iraqis believed the military occupation was doing more harm than good, with a clear majority favoring immediate military withdrawal.  Does anybody out there believe that further occupation will bring them around to our side? 

              And now comes the prison scandal.  Typically, the administration chose to ignore repeated warnings about the abuses, beginning a full year ago.  Months before the scandal broke, the International Red Cross told top administration officials about the problems at Abu Ghraib and similar problems at many other prisons.  But the administration was avoiding news it didn't want to hear.  We continue to avoid the fact that the abuses were systemic, included many prisons, and reached from the top down through many military and civilian levels. 

              Many might disagree, and certainly I could be wrong, but I reluctantly conclude that we must withdraw from Iraq, with the least possible further damage to our troops and to Iraq.  It's now too late for nation-building.  We've made too many mistakes.  We have alienated the Iraqi people, and we are rapidly alienating the entire world.  Even senior White House adviser Karl Rove suggests that the consequences of the Abu Ghraib photographs are so enormous that it will take decades for the United States to recover. 

              Some will claim that if the U.S. withdraws, Iraq will dissolve into chaos.  But that is already happening.  Some will claim that Iraq will become a terrorist haven.  But we have already caused this, and the longer we stay the worse it will become.  It will be claimed that we must "stay the course" in order to prove American resolve.  But it's our good sense, not our resolve, that is in question; digging ourselves further into a quagmire will not help.  Some will point to the danger of an Iraqi civil war if we withdraw.  But this will be a danger whenever we withdraw, and long-term occupation can only make things worse. 

              Most difficult of all is the effect of withdrawal on the valiant American troops who have served in Iraq, especially on the 4100 wounded and the memory of the 763 dead.  But "staying the course" in order to somehow vindicate these men and women, when the policy is failing, only compounds our losses when we should be cutting them. 

              Where did we go astray?  The Bush Administration seems to be a perfect embodiment of an American tendency to base policy decisions on ideology rather than on evidence and reason.   I've tried to document in past articles this administration's innumerable distortions of science.  In Iraq, we are seeing the ultimate fruits of such decision-making.  The administration believed, because it dearly wanted to believe, that Saddam possessed weapons of mass destruction, that Iraqis would flock to our side, etc. 

              If this column has had any single theme, it is that in matters of public policy we need to follow our heads, not our feelings.  We must look at all the evidence, not just that which supports our own prior beliefs.  We are all paying for the administration's ideological blinders. 

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