Art Hobson
ahobson@uark.edu
NWA Times 17 Mar 2007
How
to solve global warming
We
must get serious about using technology wisely, or humankind will not pull
through the technology transition that began with the industrial age.
The clearest example is global warming--our biggest challenge to date. We can no longer
prevent it, but there's still time to ward off its worst consequences.
This will be neither cheap nor easy, but it's doable.
Britain's authoritative Stern Review on the Economics of Climate Change
states that global warming can be addressed adequately for less than one percent
of global domestic product every year, while if not addressed adequately it
will cost 20 percent of world GDP and be as devastating as World War II. We
can afford to address the problem, but we can't afford not to.
What must we do? Global
temperatures have already risen 1.35 degrees Fahrenheit since 1900. NASA's global warming expert James Hansen
estimates that another 2 degrees of warming will bring us to a tipping point
beyond which irreversible polar ice cap melting begins, and 1.25 degrees of
that is already "in the pipeline" because of the delayed effects
of the global warming pollutants already in the atmosphere. The margin of error is thin.
To prevent disaster, Hansen and others calculate that we must hold
atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations to less than 450 molecules per million
air molecules (450 ppm). Since
1900, fossil fuels and forest clearing have driven concentrations upward from
280 to 380 ppm, and rising at 18 ppm every decade. So another 3 decades of "business as usual" could
get us in big trouble.
The best summary of solutions I've seen comes from Robert Socolow and
Stephen Pacala, leaders of the carbon mitigation initiative at Princeton University,
where Socolow is a mechanical engineering professor and Pacala an ecology
professor. They offer 15 global
strategies, called "wedges," for reducing carbon emissions during
the next 50 years, any 10 of which would suffice.
Here are the strategies, grouped under 5 larger categories.
Efficiency
and conservation: Increase the
fuel economy of 2 billion cars from 30 to 60 mpg; drive 2 billion cars not
10,000 but 5,000 miles a year; cut electricity use in buildings by 25 percent.
Power
generation: Raise the efficiency
at 1,600 large coal-fired plants from 40 to 60 percent; replace 1,400 large
coal-fired plants with gas-fired plants.
Carbon
sequestration (coal plants pumping their carbon dioxide emissions into
underground storage): Install
sequestration at 800 large coal-fired plants; install sequestration at coal
plants that produce hydrogen for 1.5 billion vehicles; install sequestration at
coal-to-liquid fuel plants.
Alternative
energy sources: Increase nuclear
power threefold to displace coal; increase wind power 40-fold to displace coal;
increase solar power (photovoltaics, solar-thermal electricity generation)
700-fold to displace coal; increase wind power 80-fold to make hydrogen for
zero-emission cars; drive 2 billion cars on ethanol.
Agriculture and forestry: stop
all deforestation; practice 'conservation tillage" (seeds are drilled
into the ground without plowing) and other actions that conserve soil carbon.
None of these are easy, but all are technically and financially feasible. Any ten "wedges" would suffice.
We could accomplish many of these wedges simply by practicing what
many of us regard as the first principle of environmental economics: Technologies must incorporate environmental
"externalities" into their own balance sheets. Here's a local example: The Southwestern Electric Power Company
should not be allowed to freely exploit Fayetteville's scenic beauty with
their proposed giant electric poles.
Swepco should bury the lines, and they and their customers should bear
the financial burden.
What can you do? Here are a few suggestions: Have at least one car-free day every week (the car is most people's biggest energy consumer, by far), walk to work, bicycle to work, live near your work, buy a fuel-efficient car, car-pool, support higher gasoline taxes, question the "need" for new roads, avoid car-oriented big-box stores, oppose I-540 widening, support mass transit, support a regional train, support sidewalks and trails, support higher impact fees, support compact communities, support infill, oppose unsequestered coal plants, conserve electricity, conserve paper, conserve water, use compact fluorescents, insulate your home, live in a small house, stop at two children, support family planning, teach environmentalism to your children, recycle, generate less trash, don't litter, criticize people who litter, pick up other people's litter, buy less stuff, buy stuff that's durable and repairable, don't buy over-packaged stuff, don't waste stuff, eat low on the food chain, eat less, buy organic products, take a cloth bag to the store, patronize the Farmers' Market, buy local and regional products, and follow the serious (not celebrity) news. There are many more. Nobody does them all, but do some of them and add more as time goes by.
It all comes down to one thing you need to do: Develop an attitude of thoughtfulness—reverence--toward our planet.
These little actions go a long way. For instance, if every American home replaced just ten light bulbs with compact fluorescents, each person would save $300 in energy costs and more importantly our nation would prevent carbon emissions equivalent to 8 million automobiles.
Support the McCain-Obama-Lieberman national plan to reduce emissions
by two-thirds by 2050. Support the Arkansas bill to establish
the "Governor's Commission on Global Warming," the first global
warming legislation ever proposed in Arkansas.
Arkansas is one of only two states (along with South Carolina) that
presently has no official state activity regarding global warming.
The world can solve this problem. But neither business as usual nor politics as usual will do. It's time for each of us to get involved.